26/07/2020

The benefits of No Deal Brexit – 26 July

By Peter Cook
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I am constantly reminded by Remainers on social media that Brexit is done. There’s nothing we can do about it, and we should shut up and accept Brexit. Although I find this daily capitulation to Johnson’s Neville Chamberlain moment deeply depressing, I have decided to take their words seriously as I’m tired of fighting a war on two fronts.  So here I’m setting out the reasons why No Deal (also known as an Australian deal) Brexit is a much better outcome for Britain than any other Brexit deal.

We already know the impossibility of securing a good Brexit deal from four years of vacillation and nonsense from our government in terms of economic, social and political outcomes.  Theresa May’s Brexit deal was the high-water mark of Brexit and everything else has been a degradation of what could be said to be Brexit.  Even Jacob Rees-Mogg and the ERG have derided recent Brexit proposals from David Frost as not being a true Brexit, positioning themselves in order to avoid responsibility for the Brexit monstrosity that they created.

Parliament rejected the Brexit deal by 432 to 202 votes

In any case, No Deal and the most likely Johnson Brexit deal are not very far apart in terms of the economic and social costs.  Already Brexiteers are saying that the Brexit on offer will not be a real Brexit.  This is rather like arguing about whether the real IRA was better than the Provisional IRA.  This shapeshifting by the Brexit antagonists mitigates against securing a Brexit deal of any kind. Experts predict that the impact of Brexit will be a sustained loss of between 5-7% GDP over 10 years, compounded by COVID losses.  The word “Britastrophe” has been coined to describe the combined impact of Corona crisis + Brexit disaster.  Remember, it only took 3.5% loss of GDP to give us the 2008 crash. Imagine the exponential impact of Corona + Brexit on lives and livelihoods?

A No Deal Brexit is the most likely Brexit to help us regain an entry to the EU. Two to three months of abject chaos on the streets through food shortages, supply chain breakages, tariffs, delays, queues at borders, gridlocking of Kent and so on should be enough to bring Brexit Britain to its knees. Of course, there is no guarantee that the EU would let us re rejoin at this point, although they have kept their powder dry on this matter, unlike our testosterone filled bloated Prime Minister.  Nonetheless, a No Deal Brexit offers us the quickest shortest sharp shock to Britain, whereas a Brexit deal simply delays the “boiling of the British frog”.  Note that no frogs were injured in the making of this video.

No Brexit or No Deal?

Why then is a Brexit deal worse than No Deal I hear you ask?  Well simply this. A Brexit deal will mean waiting 5 to 10 years to rejoin the EU whilst we “try the Brexit experiment”.  Brexiteers will argue that it took 5 years to get Brexit done so we should at least allow 5 years minimum to try it out. When Remainers talk about rejoining the EU, they seem to forget that we would rejoin on a completely different basis than the current state of the United Kingdom. It is quite likely that Scotland will have left the UK within 5 years.  It’s also quite plausible that Northern Ireland will be on the way to reunification with Ireland. Wales will probably join in the contagion of countries wishing to leave broken Britain and possibly even Cornwall.  I said as a joke at No 10 Downing Street in 2017 that Britain would be reduced to the people’s republic of Thurrock.  An exaggeration?  Yes, but also containing certain grains of truth.

At the same time, the economic state of Britain will not be the same. Company departures, realignment of business models such as JLR, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, Airbus, Honda, HSBC, Santander and total relocations away from Brexit Britain could likely mean that the UK does not even meet the criteria to rejoin the EU. At the same time, the experience of Britain’s aggressive approach to Brexit will undoubtedly harden the EU’s view on our potential to rejoin without conditions, such as the adoption of the Schengen zone, the use of the euro as a currency etc.   I would not want us back, so why would Brussels?

Doomsayers united

“Don’t be so pessimistic Peter”.  I hear you say.  “You are one of those doomsayers”. OK, I hear you.  Perhaps you are right, so let’s be positive.

By September / October, it is quite likely that there will be severe unemployment, once the protective umbrella of furloughing is removed by “Dishy Rishi” Sunak, aka Mr “Whatever it takes”.  At the same time, we are likely to be into a second Corona wave by then, given that the R rate in England is now at 1.00 or above, thanks to Tim Witherspoon and his ilk for insisting that pubs must be opened.  I predict severe social unrest as people reach the bottom of their Maslow triangles.  Mr “No Plan Johnson” has no plan for this.  There are simply not enough police officers and army officers available to deal with mass civil unrest.  What happens then?  Is this positive enough for you?

What can you do about it?

We cannot rely on an opposition to help suspend Brexit. Sir Keir Starmer is lovely, but he is also playing the long game of waiting for this Government to fail.  Labour are also embroiled in their own internal battles of anti-semitism and wokeness at this time. We must do it ourselves. Here are some things to do:

  1. We must write to the 40 or so wavering Tory MPs and present the arguments for suspending Brexit in the wake of Corona.  In fact, just write to your MP, full stop, using any of these arguments to make your point.
  2. Get out on the streets.  Visit your MP and demand that Brexit be suspended in the wake of Corona.
  3. Write to the newspapers.  Present compelling arguments for suspending Brexit in ways that Brexiteers can understand.
  4. Work on individual soft Brexiteers and weary Remainers through “Brexorcism”.
  5. Keep reminding people that Corona + Brexit = Britastrophe. Grab a roll of stickers from EU Flag Mafia to help you paint your town yellow.

Brexit is the product of “Parliamentary Paralysis”.  We change parliamentary paralysis by influencing our MPs.  We change the will of the people by writing to the newspapers and presenting the arguments.  So, we need to target our MPs and we still need to target the general public to change minds.  A “Brexorcism” takes skill patience and time.  You can find out how to do these by reading the book “Let’s talk about BREX .. it”.