Labour’s flawed Brexit policy
This from Paul Cawthorne in Italy, an economist, international consultant and long-term member of Reboot Britain. Image by Patricia Paton, Editor Bylines Scotland, from the related article Hard Labour, which you shoud read in conjunction with this piece.
Labour’s current “Make Brexit Work” policy is seriously flawed and, at best, will have no positive or negative impacts on their immediate electoral prospects. Labour is going to win power because the Tories are imploding after 14 damaging years (including Brexit) and Labour are now more trusted on all the key bread-and-butter issues (the NHS, the economy etc). Labour will win the general election despite, not because of, its unnecessary “no rejoining” red lines. If Starmer left the door open to rejoining the single market and customs union he would still be winning the election by a large margin.
Key factors
1. Poor advice based on outdated (2019) focus groups and internal polling data.
2. Overestimation of the enduring support for a hard Tory Brexit in the so-called Red Wall. Confirmed by John Curtice.
3. Underestimation of the the impact of Brexit’s evident failure on public opinion. See also The Sun’s reaction to the £5 Billion wasted on border checks just yesterday.
4. Underestimation of the impact of demographic changes on the electorate.
5. Overblown fear of the reaction of Tory tabloids to any perceived watering down of Brexit. See The Sun yesterday and the Telegraph.
6. Misplaced belief that “Make Brexit Work” will be a convincing winning 3-word slogan in 2024.
7. Nostalgic belief that Labour is still essentially a “working class” party and needs to prioritise at all costs the views and prejudices of these traditional “core supporters”.
See also Tectonic Plates
See also Blank Canvas
See also Hard Labour
Things to do
The run up to an election is a critical time to influence politicians. Make sure you tell your Labour MP or candidate that your support is conditional on a change on policy.
Share relevant articles that accord with Paul’s analysis.
Expect better. Remainers are all too often on the back foot.
Postscript
I ambushed Keir Starmer this morning (23.05.24) at Gillingham Football ground with a message about Brexit and Rejoining the EU. It went down rather well with Labour activists. A few locals scowled as is normal in the area when Brexit is mentioned. My message was short as there are always just a few seconds to make your point in such circumstances : “Brexit is a game of two halves. Let’s make sure Mr Starmer is not on the losing side in the Euros”.
