I rarely base my predictions in politics on hope. After all, I have often said, hope is not a strategy. Even Gina Miller now says it after I worked for her as her Campaign Manager before I found out that she counts Richard Tice and Isabel Oakeshott as ‘besties’! I have however been musing upon various possible political scenarios in the short term, i.e. Farage’s Fall colliding with the Burnham Bounce and Brexit decline. There are a lot of ifs in this scenario, but hear me out. With thanks to Greg Newman for the snappy title and wise inputs.

Farage’s Fall

Many moving parts are coming together in NFs faulty decision to call a referendum on his integrity via the Clacton by-election. It is feasible that NF could be badly damaged by the various parties standing against him. We are there to make sure this happens. We are the only serious party standing in Clacton and are already inflicting serious damage on the NF brand. See Bin Brexit. Regardless of this, NF will continue to face scrutiny over the £5 million “donation” and many other legal challenges in the coming months. His star appears to be receding. We know that once people lose faith, the only way is down. There have been relatively few phoenix-like rises from the ashes in politics, with Churchill, Wilson and Trump being notable exceptions.

Burnham’s Bounce

There are already signs of a Burnham Bounce and we are only a week into his premiership. If only because the Labour Party have rallied round him out of guilt over their decision to assassinate Keir Starmer before his decisions fed through to people’s lived experiences. Burnham will undoubtedly benefit from Starmer’s legacy. But we live in a world where people expect instant results on complex issues. The real questions are how big the Burnham Bounce will be and, even more importantly, how long will the Burnham Bounce last?

Andy began his premiership with a series of outlandish promises. These are unlikely to survive contact with real life, unless … He either inflicts a lot of pain on the electorate via taxation and borrowing, or confronts the elephant in the room aka Brexit. Brexit costs Britain £240 bn pa, £93 bn of which we could recover by applying to Rejoin the EU. Unlike Keir Starmer, it is unlikely that Burnham’s honeymoon period will be two years. It will more likely be measured in months. Burnham also has no mandate from the people to vary the Labour manifesto. This presents an intriguing scenario which I’ve called Crossing the Chasm or “Supersonic” – minor nod to the Gallagher brothers.

Supersonic

Let’s suppose that Farage’s star continues to fall. Let’s also suppose that Burnham calculates that his bounce will be short lived and that “peak Burnham” is probably autumn / winter 2026. He could go to the nation to call a general election using his honesty platform by saying :

“Look, I know I was not elected by the people of Britain and I promised I will do things differently. I need your mandate to go forward to fund the great changes we plan to make. Not by making your lives harder, but by seizing the opportunities for sustainable growth. I need your approval to build a better Britain in a better Europe for a better World. We’ll do this by ending our toxic relationship with Brexit, cutting the red lines that are costing us hundreds of billions every year and seizing the opportunities that can come from a Reformed relationship with Europe”. He might even channel Oasis by saying “Don’t look back in anger” 🙂

Andy would offer a simple manifesto promise to apply to Rejoin without another toxic referendum, capitalising on people’s acceptance that Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster, also avoiding people’s aversion to another national psychodrama by wrapping it into an election.

Champagne Supernova

Critics will say “Theresa May”. In fact one senior Labour member friend of mine has already said that, putting party before country. This, of course, is how we got into ths mess. My tongue in cheek reply is in green below. I could not help quoting the band “Journey” !! 🙂 I understand his point of loyalty, after all that is what parties and party members do, but without radical actions to match radical words, I fear that the Burnham Bounce will be short lived. Andy would be living the value of improving democracy by asking the nation to back him. Labour has already adopted the process we started in Somerset, for a national conversation about a better Britain. Burnham would be seen as not falling into the oft quoted trap of “They’re all the same”.

Things to do

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