Here’s some very short helpful facts about Rejoining the EU and putting Brexit to an early. The Tories are still trying to run the illusion that the will of the people must be respected. Brexit is no longer the will of the people with only 18% of the British population now thinking that Brexit is a success and with 55% now wanting to Rejoin the EU.
63% of people in Britain now think that Brexit was a mistake
This figure is rising rapidly, as Brexit reveals its many ugly heads
I predict it will be between 67 and 74% by early 2024 !!
The upward curve towards the rejection of Brexit by the vast majority of people will be asymptotic, up to perhaps a residual hardcore of racists and people clutching Brexit unicorns (80% ++ insert your own number?), but it is climbing rapidly. There will be a huge social desirability to be on the ‘winning side’ once Brexiteers realise that they are no longer a majority. I find that they operate in herds and had an interesting chat about ‘in and out’ groups with a psychologist called Elvis on this recently. Quite why I always choose the leaders of social groupings in cafes and pubs for Brexorcism purposes.
Only 18% of Brits now believe Brexit is a success
Nigel Farage has declared Brexit a failure
The vote leave demographic is literally and metaphorically a dying breed
Public opinion on Brexit is now way ahead of politicians
Rejoining is possible, inevitable but difficult. Clear strategy, focus and leadership are needed
Contrary to what people believe, another referendum is not the only way to settle the matter democratically.
- Via Parliament: once Brexit carnage becomes more widely and deeply felt, legislative initiatives to mitigate the effects of Brexit (for example a single market or customs union application) may grow. If supported with the combined weight of opposition parties, who currently give the Government a free ride on Brexit, an incremental route back into EU membership may evolve.
- General Election: the levels of Brexit carnage might become so great over time that joining becomes an election issue. Set against that possibility, people would have to conclude that Brexit was a cause or correlation with their lived experiences. This has been difficult so far, as CoVID, and now the Ukraine crisis, mask Brexit’s damage. However, that cloak is slowly being removed. For this reason, it matters that the word Brexit is not airbrushed out of the political lexicon. Labour’s collusion to date has thus far boxed it into a position that makes a U-turn difficult, but not impossible.
- Another Referendum: a new referendum could be offered, even though I don’t favour using one. However, a second referendum might be considered as a ‘christening service’ once the ‘will of the people’ changes sufficiently. Despite the first referendum having been conducted by simple majority, it is likely any successor would require a super majority of 66%. This presents a very high bar, so it would be fair to use the same ground rules as in the 2016 referendum.
- Government of National Unity: Things may become so bad that the idea of a Government of National Unity (GONU) becomes feasible once again. In August 2019, a GONU seemed a realistic possibility until the opposition parties responded to Boris Johnson’s temptation of a General Election. Considerable social, economic and political disruption would be needed for such a scenario to be possible, so the probability is arguably low. However, nothing can be ruled out in any disruptive political environment. Present scandals within the Tory party and Putin’s actions may reveal yet more problems. A coalition government is perhaps the latest manifestation of GONU. Perhaps this will get rid of our current GONADS Brexit government? !!
See the article from London for Europe for a full discussion on settling the democratic process:
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Here’s three things you can do to make progress on getting Brexit gone: