Full Disclosure : I’m no fan of Keir Starmer’s Labour Government, but the far right and their media hoods just hounded out the best person to lead the Labour party. I’m sure there is a parallel in Nazi Germany … answers on a postcard please.
Angela Rayner’s departure was voluntary, but I’d be sure that Starmer would have pushed her to save his skin in the end, due to media pressure, and cat calls from Farage’s fascist followers. It is a testament to Starmer’s weakness as a leader, running in FOF (Fear of Farage). Morgan McSweeney’s name (The Dominic Cummings of Labour) also turns up again in the frame.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt ‘forgot’ that he owned 7 homes. Matt Hancock forgot the £37 Bn COVID Ponzi scheme, Boris Johnson ‘forgot’ that he killed 30 000 people unnecessarily, The Truss gambled £70 Bn of OUR money on fantasy economics, Zahawi experienceed £4.8 million in “tax amnesia” whilst heating his horses. NF’s accountancy skills seem rather dodgy … Dido Harding, Michelle Mone, the list goes on ….. These are willful crimes, yet none were held to account.
Angela Rayner’s case is different on two counts (a) Proportionality and (b) Willfulness. I’m sure lots of people would think that £40 000 is a lot, but go compare with the eye watering sums trousered by the Tories. Secondly, unlike the Tories, Angela admitted the mistake and apologised. She was hung out to dry based on her open-ness, misogyny and because she came from a council house ‘oop north’, disguised as a gap between standards expected by leaders and the rest of us. And nobody mentions Rayner’s disabled son, who she set up a trust fund for to care for him after her death. Shameful behaviour by all who have hounded her.
Many of the Reform pack hounds probably contribute to the estimated UK tax gap for 2021-2022 of £36 billion, an increase from £32 billion in 2019-2020. Pure hypocrisy, but that is the operating system of Reform UK 2.0.
Meanwhile Keir pivots further to the far right by appointing Shabama Mahmood as Home Secretary. And Farage says prepare for an election in 2027 as yet another magic spell to fool his followers. Do remember that Governments don’t step down just because things go badly. Theresa May, Liz Tuss, Rishi Sunak were not elected by the public. I assume that Nigel thinks his followers will find him out (or possibly die in some cases) by 2029, hence his call for a 2027 election.
This is a failure of Keir Starmer and his cabal. I have to say that they deserve to get Reform UK. The need for a national conversation about A Better Britain has never been greater. I started this in North Somerset, but it need to be mainstreamed. I think it may now be too late …
Oh, yes, and just apply to Rejoin the EU. £140 bn pa would go a long way to dealing with Britain’s problems.
Paul Higgins (London for Europe) disagrees with me and in the spirit of diversity, I have published his reply below.
And just for some bizarre context, a Blue Sky person who identifies as a Marmousette eviscerated me online for quoting a Travis song as the title of this article (without reading it), stating that my title was misogynistic. I asked him / her to explain but the ran off claiming that I was bullying them … oh well.
I like Angela Rayner. See our latest article on her demise. As some who started life in a council house, who pulled myself up by my bootstraps, with a wife from Manchester, I identify with Angela’s straight talk on many things. I was therefore even more dismayed to hear her spinning myths and lies on LBC this week about Brexit. Angela came up with many of the Brexiteer arguments in this interview. Here are some of her ‘whoppers’.
The will of the people must be respected
Horseshit. We are fast approaching the point where 70% of people in Britain believe that Brexit has failed. Angela appears not understand that democracy is NOT a project. It is a process. She would not even be an MP if democracy were a project as women would not have a vote or be able to participate in society. We would be more like Saudi Arabia under Angela’s view of democracy.
We can’t just rejoin
Bollocks. Whilst it’s true that all takes time, the only thing preventing us from starting the process is a backbone in politics. Read our article on the matter at Byline Times.
I met with four Labour Councillors campaigning in my area on Sunday. All said they fundamentally disagreed with the exec. Are they prepared to do anything about it? Of course not. We need ‘different’ and not more of the same. What matters is the beginning of the journey, not the end point.
We can’t rejoin on the same terms
This was perhaps Angela’s cleverest deception. By not being specific, she allowed people to fill in the dots by themselves … for example “oh we’ll lose the pound, Shengen, pints”, and many other myths put forward by the Brexiteers. These feed the Labour project fear narrative and Angela should really know better.
It is true that Old Albion will need to learn some appropriate humility as part of the joining process, instead of the English exceptionalism which characterised the Brexit vote. However, it is unwise to place more constraints in the way of success than is necessary before negotiations begin. When I reflect on the conversation I observed with Barnier, I know that rejoining is possible. Yes, it will be difficult and everything will be on the table. If Britain decided that it must keep the pound for example, I’m sure it would be considered. Since all is a trade, the EU may come with some other things we may have to move on to keep the pound, perhaps in the finance domain, perhaps an asymmetric trade-off. For example, we have just seen concessions on Northern Ireland traded with changes to the Erasmus scheme. Nonetheless, what we must do is establish the principle of rejoining and political will to do so. Once that is secured, we must then leave the negotiators to do the work, as we did in the Brexit negotiations. See our book on Rejoining the EU.
In the run up to the 2024 general election, I was told by numerous Labour voters and activists “Look, just vote Labour. It’s going to be alright. As soon as they get elected, they will end Brexit”. Although I did not believe them (and have been proved to be right), I agreed that the Tories needed to go. So I made sure thatmy election campaign did not harm Labour and then waited. I’m still waiting. In this article, I take a dispassionate view of Labour’s first year in power.
A good start marred by sheer incompetence
Labour got off to a good start, facing down “The Farage Riots” to great effect. It is to Labour’s actual decisions that I have the greatest issues. Decisions which barely touch the sides of our problems in Rebooting Britain, but which have generated so much heat and given the far right media so many easy wins. For example : The pensioners heating allowance last winter. Worth a measly £1.2 billion (Yes, I’d like to have £1.2 bn but it’s petty cash in the grand scheme of things). This generated so much heat for so little financial gain … in fact if the heat generated by public and media reaction had been stored we could have heated the whole country for several winters!! Worse still, Labour have now backtracked on it, long after the damage to the Labour brand has been done.
Death by 1000 Brexit ameliorations
Labour claim to have kept their Brexit red lines but in fact broken them in several areas. See Labour’s Red Lines. This has not gone unnoticed by Farage and the Alt Right Wing press. Even though Labour’s strategy on Europe amounts to “death by 1000 Brexit ameliorations” rather than more fundamental fixes, they have gained just as much damage to the Labour brand as if they had applied to Rejoin the EU. Brexit costs us £140 Billion every year in lost opportunity and taxes. This dwarfs the pensioners’ heating costs, PIP, social care etc.
Shameful behaviour
The PIP fiasco was yet another disastrous decision, presumably informed by the triumph of ideology over pragmatism and an adherence to the doctrines of Morgan McSweeney. On this subject, I find it hard to tell the difference between Starmer’s government and the Tories. I could go on about rollback on climate commitments, social care, toadying to Trump due to our Brexit weakness and Labour’s point blank refusal to provide safe routes for migrants, instead preferring to up the ante about undocumented migration, in order to pray at Nigel Farage’s fascist altar.
Sympathy for the devil?
Yes, we have had 14 years of managed decline via austerity on steroids amplified by Brexit, and most people do not understand how long it takes to turn the economic cycle round, so it’s slightly unfair to expect Labour to be able to waive magic wands on all the issues competing for their attention. However, there was no need for Labour to prey upon our most vulnerable citizens in order to look tough for a few knuckle dragging gammons in the so called red wall. There are plenty of other good choices to be made. There is no way Labour can discuss growth without confronting the Brexit elephant in the room. See our work in Somerset for the Labour MP there. Labour are also shamefully complicit in the genocide in Gaza and for trying to criminalise old age pensioners who use the word Palestine as part of civil protests.
Death by 1000 ameliorations is still death
We were asked to give an interview for Dubai TV in Arabic regarding the Kensington Treaty. This is an agreement between Chancellor Merz and Keir Starmer on defence and security, climate, economics, trade and STEM co-operation. Starmer chose to highlight the rather thin issue of some basic co-operation on migration control to appease Farage. Here is the raw interview. We simply need to apply to rejoin EU fullyto overcome the problems facing Brexit Britain. Death by 1000 Brexit ameliorations is still death, albeit a slow one.
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This is a short story about the power of networking and connectivity. It took place over several weeks and involved at least 8 people from Swindon to Italy, Florida, Tunbridge Wells and Northern Ireland … It shows how “Parking on Red Lines” can sometimes be of value …
I was talking with Steve Rouse, leader of Swindon for Europe and instigator of “Dance Europa”. He explained how he had a difficult conversation with his Labour MP about their Brexit “red lines”. He pointed out that Labour can drop red lines on pretty much everything from Climate Change, but apparently not on Brexit. I popped that thought in my incubator … and shared it on our WhatsApp group.
Fast forward to our meeting at Reboot Britain. I was explaining Steve’s challenge to the team. Then Paul Cawthorne produced one of his famous lists on reasons why Labour’s red lines are seriously flawed … a little later and we get to the point that Labour have already broken its Brexit red lines on Gibraltar. If it can do this, it can apply to Rejoin the EU.
Although I am giving up on collaboration, I remain open to honouring great ideas when they come. I was compelled to make this one page summary (and Paul’s other meme) on red lines.
Parking on Red Lines
Send a letter with these graphics to MPs and share with influencers on social media.
Send a letter with these graphics to MPs and share with influencers on social media.
This story demonstrates the power of collaboration, joining the dots and why “Parking on red lines” matters. Thank you to the team for this. It’s a pity we cannot unify around the idea of Rejoining the EU. We still have as many formulations of what the problems are, what the obstacles are and what the end game is. Multiple perspectives on ends and means. These are typical characteristics of what I call “Wicked Problems“. Divergence on ends and means is at the heart of why we lose. The only good Brexit is a dead Brexit and the only good answer is to drop the red lines and apply to Rejoin.
Take Action – Park the Red lines
Write to your MP using these points above, the graphic and a copy of our book on Rejoining the EU. Having spent 32 years leveraging creativity, good ideas come from diverse connections and not from linear planning. Parking on red lines matters !!
Next steps – Remove Reform
I’m talking to Reform Watch today to see if we can join some more dots with our book on Brexorcism and our group “Fact Check Fash”. I recently had a letter from the Labour MP in Portishead explaining that they are holding a town hall meeting on Brexit following the lines of our suggestion for a national conversation on the matter in “A Better Britain“.
I’m also planning to stand for Council here in Medway to ensure Reform UK do not take hold in my area. Please support the campaign via Remove Reform UK.
Nigel F wants to get rid of the NHS and install “Two Tier Health”. He’s entitled to have that view in a democracy, but lets just think a while on what private healthcare means for most of us. There is already a way to see the future of a privatised NHS via the US model of healthcare. Just look at what you will likely be paying for critical operations and care:
This is not a joke. In the US if you cannot pay, you don’t get treatment. Be careful what you wish for …
Wendy Novak is an expert on this subject. Read her extract from the book Reboot Britain on Brexit and Healthcare. It was recently reported that Brexit has led to 1500 unnecessary deaths every year due to the exodus of European health professionals. Nigel did not put that on a bus! Perhaps that’s why he tells people not to listen to experts … Watch our mini film featuring several examples of people who rely on critical care. I’m glad to say that all are still alive as I write this.
Brexit kills … 1500 people a year … unnecessarily … let that sink in.Brexit is bad for your health …
Saving lives
But I’m an optimist, so I have a few suggestions on how to save lives for others through the unselfish acts of leave voters …
Just say no … to treatment
Do it yourself
Reforming Reform
If we want to deal with the causes of the Reform UK vote, deep therapeutic interventions into the minds and souls of the great unwashed are needed. I wrote a book to teach people how to do it based on 1000s of hours of deliberate practice. Please read the book of Brexorcism and attend our next meeting on Monday 12 May at 8 pm via ZOOM. I am also going to offer a six month professional development programme in the art and practice of what I call “Brexorcism” to give you the skills, strategies and stories to change mindsets if there is sufficient interest. Write to me for details via reboot@brexitrage.com.
I have also written to my Labour MP on the subject of mass Brexorcisms … and potholes … write your Labour MP a letter about Brexit and send a copy of Rejoin EU: Reboot Britain to them. See my letter below:
Dear Naushabah,
Firstly, may I congratulate you on the noticeable improvements to the roads after 14 years of Tory managed decline. As a cyclist, I am much closer to the asphalt than most road users and have fallen off my bicycle several times due to potholes in recent times. Although no physical damage has been done, I’ve had to replace a wheel due to the disgraceful neglect of the roads by the Tories. As a principle, I refuse to use my car on environmental grounds, preferring public transport and my bicycle and this gives me much better contact with the road (not literally for the most part).
I spoke with Cllr Vince Maple yesterday and pointed out that much of our “populist pothole problems” come from shoddy piecemeal repairs from dodgy contractors rather than complete resurfacing projects. To use a dental analogy, quite a few of these ‘drill and fill’ operations have now opened up on my street which will cost more money to fix. I’m pleased to see that your approach in Gillingham and Rainham (and in other parts of the Medway Towns) has been for wholesale renewal and hope these contracts are being closely managed.
I’m pretty sure that you have audited the area, as I see white lines around some of the most offending holes, but if I could add my two penneth of comment in, the bottom half of Barnsole Road has some very dangerous ruts and the middle of Canterbury St is very bad for bicycles. Please pass on the word to Tristan from bus drivers that the Brook in Chatham is extremely hazardous.
At the same time, I’m disappointed to see that many of the double red lines and now turning back to yellow. IMHO, it was shoddy work to just paint over the yellow lines, especially when the contractors were paid £800 000 to do it. Frankly I would have done it for less, to a better standard. Please ask them to make the work good at no cost to the taxpayer. I am currently dealing with a cowboy builder for my neighbours who are without good English language and I take a dim view of shoddy work which is not fit for purpose.
And whilst we are on the subject and at a national level, just stop the ‘drill and fill’ operation with Brexit. It opens the door to Nigel’s army of the “hard of thinking”. As discussed with Vince yesterday, the local election wins for Deform UK were characterised by low turnout and a certain number of people wanting to give Labour a bloody nose for what are, frankly, some terrible decisions, which have generated a great deal of angst for little real return. To strech the dental analogy a bit too far, more drilling and filling and tooth extractions without anaesthesia will not make the pain of Brexit diminish. It is time for some “Brexit root canal surgery” via an application to Rejoin the EU. Trump 2.0 / Putin / Farage etc. makes the burning platform of our relationship with the EU mission critical. Do remember that many of the people who voted for Brexit are now dead. As far as I know, dead people cannot vote in elections …
I am willing to help you design interventions to deal with the root causes of the Reform vote on a national basis via a series of large-scale interventions along the lines of the excellent event you held on climate yesterday in Rochester. I fear that if you don’t deal with Reform’s voter base, this will be a one term Labour party.
To sum up, I am extremely happy with all that you are doing locally. You prove yourself worthy of the job and I understand just how hard it is, given my other life working with senior people from global enterprises. I remain doubtful about some of the national choices being made by Labour, when there are easier picks to make, but I know you understand that. Keep going with the reforms (sic) to Gillingham and Rainham.
p.s. I’ve just published this review on the costs of Nigel’s “Two Tier Health” which gives people some foresight on Reform’s proposals to privatise the NHS. People may find it helpful, including Wes Streeting.
All the best
Peter Cook – Human Dynamics and The Academy of Rock
Here is our review of the Rejoin EU debate in Parliament on 24 March which found that Brexit was overwhelmingly a disaster. You can read the full transcript here.
Rage Against The Brexit Machine
There was unified Rage Against The Brexit Machine from right across the political spectrum save for the Tory party and Reform UK, who were too scared to attend. This rage even included Labour, who came as close as possible to being censured by the Labour party machine. Stella Creasy, in particular, gave an excoriating account of the damage being inflicted by Brexit, but, of course, stopped short of calling for Labour to reverse it, putting party before country. They will pay for this in support as I understand from inside sources that people are leaving Labour in droves. Is she waiting for her moment to unseat Starmer? We shall see. Here is an excerpt:
“Brexit is a disaster. It is a disaster by anybody’s metric, not least those according to whom it was purported to be a route to the promised land. The pandemic spared some of the blushes of those who still try to claim that we have got some elusive sovereignty as a result of leaving the European Union, but we can see the damage. Our constituents can see the damage.
Many Members have already cited some of the relevant figures; let me cite some more. As a result of Brexit, 1.8 million fewer jobs have been created in our economy, and that number is likely to rise to 3 million by 2035. Some 16,500 small businesses have stopped exporting to Europe all together. Those of us who were part of the parliamentary delegation last week had the pleasure of listening to Lord Frost trying to argue that up was down, but we know the truth for our constituents. We have seen the damage.
To me, the Brexiteers are like those people—we all have met them on a night out—who join the group, start a fight in the club and get everyone kicked out, but who still maintain, three hours later, as they are walking everyone around a completely empty industrial estate somewhere, that they know a great club that everyone can get into.”
Stella Creasy
Former Labour MP Rosie Duffield extinguished the notion that Labour had made an election promise NOT to reverse Brexit, by pointing out the many election promises already broken by Labour.
“The people now in charge were campaigning, with those of us who were here then, against Brexit several years ago, and I would like them to stick to that.”
Rosie Duffield
Creasy chose a particularly pathetic excuse to justify why Brexit could not be ended, by stating that it would be “difficult”. FFS, this is the job of politics and politicians, to do difficult things to make the world a better place!! Brexit was difficult, so stating the obvious as a reason to do nothing was possibly one of the ludicrous reasons to let Brexit continue that I’ve heard. This fits in with Paul Cawthorne’s list of reasons to do nothing articulated by Remoaners on an almost daily basis.
Friends Reunited
The debate was very cordial and was a model example of the kind of democratic behaviour we can return to when the Brexit nightmare has been put into a grave. It gave a united voice to the many Lib Dems who spoke, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Independents. Impressive stuff from all. Here’s a few highlights:
“We can see from the number of Liberal Democrat contributions that this subject is very important to our party. My hon. Friend the Member for Tunbridge Wells (Mike Martin) talked about the impact on defence, and my hon. Friend the Member for Stratford-on-Avon (Manuela Perteghella) talked about higher education. My hon. Friend the Member for Lewes (James MacCleary) spoke about youth mobility and the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean convention, while my hon. Friend the Member for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe (David Chadwick) talked about the impact on farmers.
My hon. Friend the Member for Bath (Wera Hobhouse) gave a very personal reflection on her own journey, for which I am grateful, and my hon. Friend the Member for South Devon (Caroline Voaden) talked about fishing. My hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (Clive Jones) spoke eloquently about barriers to trade. My hon. Friend the Member for Wimbledon (Mr Kohler) gave a polemic, which I really enjoyed, and my hon. Friend the Member for Melksham and Devizes (Brian Mathew) made a particularly interesting contribution about health co-operation, for which I thank him.”
Sarah Olney
“I encourage Labour Members to pursue this issue and keep on taking it to their Government—to argue with passion and conviction that they want the UK to be back in the European Union. That is the only thing that will satisfy the petitioners, because that is what they want. As has been rightly said, the UK public are way ahead of the House on this issue; some 60% of them now want the UK to rejoin the European Union. We should look at what they want. If one of the parties—just one—were to say, “We are totally committed to full EU membership,” that would be immensely popular; it would go with the grain of public opinion throughout the United Kingdom.”
Pete Wishart
“The Government must do what is right for the British public and not just run scared of the hon. Member for Clacton and the rest of his quarrelsome rag-bag of little Englanders and cheerleaders for Trump and Putin. We are part of Europe, and I have no doubt that one day we will rejoin the EU and regain our position at its heart, just as Winston Churchill advocated. Until that day, we must work tirelessly towards fostering ever closer co-operation by breaking free of the red lines in which this Government have bound themselves so unnecessarily.” Paul Kohler
“The end of January marked five years since the UK left the EU. Although a majority of people in the UK, and indeed in Wales, voted to leave the EU at that time, the majority do not think it was a good idea any more. Polling shows that 55% of Britons now say that it was wrong for the UK to leave the EU, with just 11% seeing Brexit as more of a success than a failure. Let us also not forget that young people voted decisively to remain.”
Liz Savile-Roberts
“Speaking of the architects of the botched Brexit, where exactly is the hon. Member for Clacton (Nigel Farage)? According to Hansard, he has mentioned Brexit just twice since his election in July. Surely, if this Brexit deal was the monumental success that he and others promised, he would be reminding us no end of times. His silence speaks volumes. Even he seems aware that this supposed triumph is best quietly forgotten.”
James MacCleary
I do not think that anyone in this Chamber, or the petitioners, expects the Labour party to lead us back into the EU tomorrow. What we want to hear from this Labour Government is a commitment that that is their objective and that is what they will work towards.
Pete Wishart
“I urge the Government to move away from warm words—at the PPA, we all exchanged warm words about our new relationship—towards action and results. Otherwise, we will be talking about a reset for many decades. We need action from the Government now.”
Wera Hobhouse
“I still wholeheartedly believe in us rejoining the European Union—that is our future—and debates like this are part of that process. People need be under no illusion that this issue is going away; as the petitioners and those supporting them prove, this debate is ongoing in the country. There is also strong support, as the polling evidence shows, that the public believe that we made a mistake.”
Tim Roca
We cannot afford to wait 10 years to address some of the very real challenges that we face as a country. Practical, tangible steps can be taken to help to build a stronger and closer relationship with the EU.
James Naish
“What is it about enriching young people’s lives that frightens this Government so much?“
Liz Savile-Roberts
Several Labour MPs went further than I had expected them to go, whilst sticking to red lines, red lines made largely irrelevant and inappropriate by redneck Trump and his Russian sponsors. We have also received some gratifying replies from Labour MPs.
To absent friends …
Save for a couple of swivel headed Unionist loons talking vacuous BS about fish and democracy, the debate was devoid of the Brexit Culture Carriers. No Nigel, Tice, Johnson, Mogg, Braverman, Duncan Smith, Truss, Sunak, Patel, Redwood, Davis, Failing Grayling, Chope, Coffey, Whittingdale, Francois, Hoey, Steve (beardy wierdy) Hardman Baker, Jenkyns, Fabricate, Leadsom, Gullis, Mordaunt, Hayes and many more. When people tell me that now is not the right time to end Brexit in case we end up in a hokey cokey Brexit, they seem to forget that Brexit has no cheerleaders. Nigel F has mentioned the word just twice since taking up office in his constituency of Washington and adopted the easy lie that Brexit was in fact perfection but it was just executed extremely badly by the hard Brexit cabinet. One would have thought that if Brexit was so good, then Brexiteers would have been lining up in their thousands to extol its virtues at the event. No one came. This speaks volumes. Even the Tory Gammon MP for Fylde said that Brexit had provided many benefits, but was unable to name ANY in his summing up. And the party line offered by Labour MP for Thamesmead was lacking in substance and delivered in such a robotic style that I began to wonder if AI had arrived sooner than expected.
It ain’t over
The motion passed. Sadly that does not mean anything other than the debate was held. If we want anything to happen, we must make it so … So, the job is not finished ….
I was delighted to receive over 30 positive replies from MPs due to our mass mailing of our book Rejoin EU: Reboot Britain to MPs, the work of 60 people, including former Labour MEPs, a KC and subject experts across many fields. This nearly involved my detention in parliament due to taking 30 kg of book in a suitcase for a meeting there !!
We have about 300 Labour MPs / journalists and influencers still to mail with books and are hatching a plan to form a “coalition of the willing and able” to meet with Sir Keir Starmer directly. We will need around £4000 to undertake these tasks (£1500 for books, a meeting in London for 20 people and associated costs). If you can help, please send us some support via WISE, BACS, Go Fund Me etc.
And you can still mail your MP with our letter and a hard copy of the book – get the template here and the book on Amazon. Bulk orders at 60% author discount direct via e-mail at reboot@brexitrage.com
Debate Rejoin NOW
“The EU is a pragmatic project, but at its core it is also an idealistic one. It is a project grounded in ideals, and in the idea that the nations of central Europe should never go to war again. It succeeded in that mission, making it one of the most successful political projects ever in mankind’s history. When we are making the argument for rejoining the European Union, let us use the language of idealism, not just rationalism. Unless we build a case for the UK to rejoin the EU based on idealist language and get people to buy into the ideals on which the European Union was founded, we will not have long-term buy-in to the project among the people we need to convince.”
David Chadwick
“I fear that I am in danger of picking at the scars and wounds referred to by the hon. Member for Walthamstow (Ms Creasy)—a very learned Member—but I must reflect on these past nine years. On 23 June 2016, the people of Scotland voted to remain within the European Union by 62% to 38%. There was a majority for remain in every single one of Scotland’s local authorities. In anyone’s terms, that was decisive, and if the vote were rerun today, I suggest it would be even more decisive.”
A letter to my new MP Naushabah Khan. I supported her candidacy in the General Elections, helping to split the Tory vote three ways. Even more pleasing I got a reply on her 2nd day in office. This validates my decision to stand and, of course, my strategy to ‘do no harm’ to Labour during my campaign, in spite my key difference over Brexit. Write your own letter to your MP. Feel free to use mine as a template.
The next five years
Morning Naushabah,
Firstly, congratulations on your appointment – fully deserved !!
My campaign was instructive in so far as it revealed something that I already knew … just how little Rehman Chishti bothers to deal with local issues unless it was multi-faith or Saudi arms ‘consultancy’ – coughs a bit …. But turning to the positives here …
I wonder if you will reverse this lack of consultation by installing ‘citizens’ assemblies’ here in Gillingham and Rainham? I know you are much more plugged into local issues than Mr Chishti, but I detected a distinct lack of public consultation from my hundreds of miles cycling round the constituency and in cafes / bars and fb groups in recent times. There is disquiet about a number of current initiatives where local consultation would lead to better solutions.
And, of course, you will expect me to ask you to put an end to Brexit as a priority and not in 2032 as Tristan Osbourne has mentioned a few times. Nobody will know what Brexit is by then and the damage will be complete, much of it irreversible. Nigel F will exploit a slow drift towards Rejoin in 2029 anyway if he is still around. Keir need not have boxed himself in on Brexit. It would have been enough to say that Brexit isn’t working, but there we are. And slow death by a thousand sector by sector ameliorations (what I call logical incrementalism in Reboot Britain) is also not an answer. Mr S seems puzzled by the question of a business case for Brexit. I am not and will be writing one in the coming week. In common with 2019, people loaned their votes to Labour in order to remove the terrible Tories. I doubt that will happen a second time and I realise how unfair this is, given the scale of things that need improving, but that’s politics as they say !
On a note of help, you can rely on my assistance in every way to improve the high street and other areas in which I can provide help. I’m also a skilled campaigner having received more votes than I deserved and having been told by many people that although they wished to vote for me, would I mind if they voted Labour to ‘carry the ming vase across the ice rink’. I did not mind and actively encouraged it.
You probably figured out at the hustings that I am supremely talented as a ‘critical friend’. I am presently bogged down in getting repairs made to my property due to criminal damage and knife crime by Reform UK acolytes, but once I have raised funds to pay for their criminal activities, I will be ready to assist in making Gillingham and Rainham a better place.
This from Paul Cawthorne in Italy, an economist, international consultant and long-term member of Reboot Britain. Image by Patricia Paton, Editor Bylines Scotland, from the related article Hard Labour, which you shoud read in conjunction with this piece.
Labour’s current “Make Brexit Work” policy is seriously flawed and, at best, will have no positive or negative impacts on their immediate electoral prospects. Labour is going to win power because the Tories are imploding after 14 damaging years (including Brexit) and Labour are now more trusted on all the key bread-and-butter issues (the NHS, the economy etc). Labour will win the general election despite, not because of, its unnecessary “no rejoining” red lines. If Starmer left the door open to rejoining the single market and customs union he would still be winning the election by a large margin.
Key factors
1. Poor advice based on outdated (2019) focus groups and internal polling data.
2. Overestimation of the enduring support for a hard Tory Brexit in the so-called Red Wall. Confirmed by John Curtice.
3. Underestimation of the the impact of Brexit’s evident failure on public opinion. See also The Sun’s reaction to the £5 Billion wasted on border checks just yesterday.
4. Underestimation of the impact of demographic changes on the electorate.
5. Overblown fear of the reaction of Tory tabloids to any perceived watering down of Brexit. See The Sun yesterday and the Telegraph.
6. Misplaced belief that “Make Brexit Work” will be a convincing winning 3-word slogan in 2024.
7. Nostalgic belief that Labour is still essentially a “working class” party and needs to prioritise at all costs the views and prejudices of these traditional “core supporters”.
The run up to an election is a critical time to influence politicians. Make sure you tell your Labour MP or candidate that your support is conditional on a change on policy.
Share relevant articles that accord with Paul’s analysis.
Expect better. Remainers are all too often on the back foot.
Postscript
I ambushed Keir Starmer this morning (23.05.24) at Gillingham Football ground with a message about Brexit and Rejoining the EU. It went down rather well with Labour activists. A few locals scowled as is normal in the area when Brexit is mentioned. My message was short as there are always just a few seconds to make your point in such circumstances : “Brexit is a game of two halves. Let’s make sure Mr Starmer is not on the losing side in the Euros”.
The Labour Party knocked on my door at the weekend. An extremely pleasant man began the canvassing by introducing himself and then asked me if I had any local issues that were troubling me. I replied with one word : BREXIT. I also apologised later on for telling him things he probably did not want to hear. He seemed fine with that and our conversation was cordial. Some of the hoops we jumped through are here for the record.
I began by explaining that I was finding it hard to vote for a Brexit party and revealed that I knew some senior Labour people who had told me that they would commence Rejoining in 2032. I explained that nobody would know what Brexit was by then and, in any case, the damage wreaked by Brexit would be mostly complete and much of it irreversible. I went through my usual argument that growth was for the birds, with a 4.5% resilience knock from Brexit, akin to trying to swim the English Channel with a 4.5 kg block of concrete around one’s neck.
Brexit resilence concrete
He listened carefully and then tried a few gentle pieces of pushback:
“Well the Conservatives won’t reverse Brexit” … I replied that I was not so sure, citing the fact that there was evidence of incremental movement to undo some of the worst elements of Johnson’s Brexit deal via the Windsor framework and our rejoining the Horizon science scheme. I went to point out that David Cameron had not come back to politics for a game of tennis and that one scenario would see Cameron pivoting towards the centre leaving the ERG loons in a boat on the Channel. I pointed him towards our articles Tectonic Plates and Cameron.
He went on to say “But the Tories will pivot towards the far right” … Again, I had to disagree, citing my appearance on James ‘O Brien, where I said that the votes were in the centre and that whilst it may appear that the far right are in ascendancy, this was only due to the loudest voices on MSM, such as Braverman and was not supported by the numbers. He nodded. I went on to say that Labour now have a major PR problem, having decided to partner with someone who supports sex pests and who relishes the thought of drowning children in the English Channel.
He found it very hard to argue against this recent development with Nathalie Elf Thick, but did ask me “What was Keir Starmer supposed to do?” … I replied that he should have simply thanked her for her kind offer and politely declined. Elphicke’s arrival in Labour offers them few advantages but also may cause them significant problems. I have wondered if she has actually been sent in under a false flag. We shall see. It seems rather fishy that the Tories instantly denounced her. Smells like a double bluff to me.
My canvasser’s parting shot was that he’d put me down as a floating voter, after I said that I may even have to hold my nose and vote Tory if Labour would not change its position on Brexit. I explained that Brexit was at the heart of many of the things he was hoping I might talk about (cost of living, NHS, migration etc.) and showed him my Brexit iceberg in the window of my house. It was a bit like doing a slightly nerdy keynote address with a poster in my window instead of a PowerPoint visual !!
The Brexit Iceberg.
I am hoping that he’ll report all of this back up the channels to Labour strategists. I was really impressed at our dialogue and how well he listened and constructively challenged me.
On the other hand, I heard from one of our group that Labour are banning posts on their Facebook groups that mention words like Erasmus, Horizon, ULEZ, Brexit etc. Labour are just as bad as the Tories in terms of censorship. I’m pleased to say that this has not extended to my local fb group, although the levels of misinformation are beyond comparison in the group. Some examples are below:
There are still industrial levels of misinformation out there. Don’t be like Steve.
Never give your voting intention away as you lose power to influence policy by doing so. I am still contemplating standing a candidate for the Rejoin party or possibly a cat again.
I’ll keep this simple. Labour insiders tell me that Keir Starmer will ‘get round’ to rejoining the EU in 2032 when nobody’s looking. Here’s why this is a unicorn to placate Labour ideologues and silence debate. It is 2023 now. Cast your mind forward 9 years ….
By 2032, few will remember what Brexit was, let alone care to do anything about it
Even in 2023 Brexit has disappeared from the news cycle and from public discourse. The poor attendance of around 5000 at the Rejoin march is an indicator of ‘Learned Helplessness’ and ‘Brexit fatigue’ amongst the general public, who either believe that Brexit is done or that we can’t do anything about it. Climate denial, bully dogs, ULEZ, mythical meat taxes, Holly Willoughby, potholes, HS2 and a stream of Tory gaslighting has effectively clogged the media channels and occupied the minds of people who are attracted to the next shiny bright object in the news. We fall for it every time.
By 2032, Horizon type deals and other ‘mini pay as EU go’ deals will reduce the pool of people who still think that Brexit is an issue
See our article Pay as EU go for more on Rishi Sunak’s strategy to pick single issues off one at a time and thus dilute the community of people interested in the underlying issue of Brexit.
By 2032, the damage of Brexit will be complete, much of it irreversible, thus little point in rejoining
For example, once the car industry leaves Britain due to rules of origin issues, they will not rush back just because a rejoin strategy is in place. Business relocations are big decisions etc. By 2027 our premier position in financial services will have declined as companies relocate or take key staff out of Brexit Britain. And so on. Like a chemical reaction, some are irreversible. Labour know all of this but fail to act. Even Prof Anand Menon is making excuses for Keir Starmer based on ‘here and now’ research. The word Brexit may have been silenced by all the political parties, media and people not wishing to re-open family wounds but all the products of Brexit are being talked about per our Brexit iceberg. Importantly, Brexit won’t go away if we keep not talking about it. It will remain a festering sore in many families for a generation until ‘gran and grandad Brexit’ have spun off this mortal coil.
The Brexit Iceberg.
By 2032 the EU may well have worked around us
This is not an insignificant point. Although there is value on both sides from rejoining at this time, there will be precious little socio-economic capital in the EU accepting us back in 2032. Just the much larger asset of political capital for the EU … they would be able to day that “the prodigal son returned”. However, the EU may well have speeded up accession of other nations seeking to join and may feel that Brexit Britain are just not worth the trouble. As a business person I fully understand that sometimes people choose the easier paths rather than the more difficult ones.
By 2032, our divergence from EU standards will make it technically more difficult to rejoin
Although this is perhaps the smallest issue, it makes the whole matter less tractable and politicians prefer to do easy things rather than difficult things.
