Theresa May knew it. Gina Miller knew it. Michel Barnier knew it. There never was such a thing as a soft Brexit. We are now inheriting the ‘benefits’ of a hard Brexit though Brexit’s delinquent and dysfunctional offspring … the cost of living crisis, a return to climate vandalism, the sale of the century (NHS), skill shortages, recession and depression, pay freezes, Brexit red tape, travel, residence and work restrictions, the fragmentation of Brexit Britain into 4 + nations, demonisation of ‘forins’ and a retreat on our science and technology base, to name but a few of the effects. And to quote The Carpenters, “We’ve only just begun”. Biz Catalyst 360 and UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) offer glimpses of what’s to come in the socio-economic, political, legal, technological and environmental suicide formerly known as Brexit. Read on ….
Read our original article on this. Written in 2020 as a warning which was ignored by populist Remainers and the big beasts.
The illusion of a soft Brexit deal was akin to a stepping stone across a pond. Without the stepping stone of a soft Brexit, it is likely that we would have turned back from the cliff edge of a hard Brexit as the chasm was too dangerous. Theresa May knew this when she threatened the ERG with the choice of a hard Brexit or no Brexit at all. She did this several times during negotiations. May was thwarted by leading Remain voices such as Femi Oluwole who began to insist on the ‘safe Brexit’ which was not safe at all. The European Movement and Best for Britain joined in, pleading for the stepping stone. I understand the desire to manage expectations, but the time to drop the Remain project was 31st December 2020 and not 18 months later. It gave remainers the excuse they needed to give up. We know the rest.
I believe that May was playing a dangerous game with the ERG to break their grip on the Conservative party and Brexit. She may have succeeded if the Remoaners had not turned against her. I pleaded with people to support May but visceral love / hate binary responses took over. I warned that we would get Johnson if we ousted May. No one listened. We did. Quite a few blamed me for supporting Theresa May. Michel Barnier knew. Oh well.
Don Adamson writes his weekly roundup from the Bungled Brexit Bunker in Barnsley.
This week’s homework
One – The Whigs, later Liberals, were a major force in British politics from about 1690 to about 1920. Several factors brought about the decline of the Liberal Party. One was the rise of the Labour Party and extending the franchise to working people. Another was a major scandal about granting knighthoods and peerages to very dubious people, usually this was a financial arrangement. A third factor was financial misconduct by Cabinet Ministers; notably the Marconi shares scandal where Cabinet Ministers awarded lucrative government contracts to Marconi on the basis of Ministers having inside knowledge. Do you see a resemblance to recent events? Is it time for another radical change in British politics?
Two – In 2010 we got a hung parliament. Labour had been in office for a number of years. They were exhausted and accident prone. It is interesting that the Tories did not win outright but had to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. In 2015 the Tories won an election with a small majority. In 2017 we got another hung parliament in an election that Labour should have won outright. The Tories entered into a very dubious arrangement with Ulster Unionists. In 2019 the Tories won a huge majority in an election that Labour should have won. Last week there were three by-elections where Labour should have romped home. Labour got one seat, Lib Dems got another and the Tories got a tiny minority in what usually one of the safest Tory seats in the country. What is happening? Tories have proved themselves unfit to govern. Labour has been Absent Without Leave since 2010 and flatly refuses to return to work. How are we going to get out of this mess?
Three – Discuss the following statement – Keith Starmer talks about there being no case for Rejoin and that Britain’s best hope for the future is outside the EU (despite all the evidence to contrary). Starmer is, in fact preparing for Rejoin. It is all part of a cunning plan to deceive Gammons and Flagshaggers. We are in this mess because Tories told (and continue to tell) an infinity of shameless lies. What useful purpose will it serve for Labour leaders to repeat the same discredited Tory lies?
Four – Discuss the following statement – Rumours circulate to the effect that a person named in Johnson’s controversial honours and awards has only one qualification for a peerage: This person is Johnson’s illegitimate firstborn. The flaw in this argument is that Johnson cannot count up to one.
Five – Discuss the following statement: I spent many years being irritated by Irish, Scottish and Welsh Nationalists (alphabetical order) moaning about the English. Then Brexit came along and I began to understand what they were moaning about.
Six – Nigel Garbage claims to have been victimised by the NatWest Bank. Did this victimisation happen because (uniquely among Gammons and Flagshaggers) Nigel Garbage noticed that Brexit has failed?
… Richy Scumbag travels in private jets and helicopters … outdoing even Johnson … spent £100,000 on travel in April … taken £54,418 from private donors over two month period …
Environment
Keith Starmer told Times Radio “I hate tree huggers”…
Download our song written for COP26 on Bandcamp. Link on You Tube.
Rupert Murdoch’s summer party Starmer attended
… Whatever Starmer is thinking, his appearance at the party seemed as forlorn an exercise as his ‘We are not reversing Brexit’ article for the Daily Express … Brexiters say ‘You cannot trust him’ … Party leaders seem to believe in the power of the press … When Blair travelled to Australia at Murdoch’s behest the Sun was selling nearly 4M copies a day. The News International titles had a combined sale of 10M copies. Today many news organisations have stopped publishing audited figures … Press Gazette concluded that our national and daily papers now barely sell 6M between them … estimates the Sun sells about 770,000 against the Mail’s 780,000 … when Blair won his landslide the Times was selling about 800,000, is now about 216,000 ‘’’ the Telegraph has gone from just over 1M to 188,000 … Newspaper circulations have been in decline for a long time, but the rate of collapse is accelerating. In 2010 the Sun was selling 3M copies daily, the Mail 2M … Mail stuck with May to the end and was messianic in defence of Johnson … it hectored the Tories into electing Thick Lizzie and perpetuated the fantasy of her competence … It seems that no PM can take office without making early contact with Murdoch, Rothermere or the Telegraph … it is hard to escape the impression that the meetings are about taking orders: cut taxes, emasculate the BBC … nowadays people get their news elsewhere … notably social media … and publications that are increasingly seen as more reliable sources. Private Eye sales are growing fast as newspapers are sinking … sells around 250,000 a fortnight … more than Telegraph, Times, Express FT, i, or Guardian can manage on an average day … Eye breaks important stories and exposes corruption … Fleet Street is slow to follow up … Symbiotic relationship between the Tories and the right wing press will face biggest test in the coming year. Their futures depend on it. If they fail Tory Party could face oblivion, newspaper proprietors could lose billions … Starmer should not have attended Murdoch’s party …
Private Eyelines parodies the populist media. Click to read.
World renowned economist Adam Posen
… described Brexit as the only time a country declared a trade war on itself … it is getting worse … expanding it to an immigration war on itself … these mistakes are going to have longer lasting effects … Five Prime Ministers and five governments in seven years … That is Italy like territory, perhaps not quite Argentina (COMMENT: You might not think it now but pre 1920 Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world). … we have had volatile and irresponsible economic policies … excessive austerity … Brexit … productivity problem … undermined credibility … less faith in the government’s ability to deliver … costs of Brexit worse than the optimists predicted … made inflation worse … red tape …admin costs and supply chains … the UK has become a small economy and must start acting like one … UK is sailing in the wrong direction … NHS is crumbling … education and training are underfunded … it is getting worse … start talking about rejoining … that might seem like common sense but we live in a country where the government thinks such talk is treason … we need to Rejoin, and, most importantly to stop the government’s war on its own country … Britain’s stock market is drifting into irrelevance Bribing the Tories Mantrac selling industrial equipment to Russia long after the Ukraine invasion … Tories accepted £5M earlier this year from Mantrac’s owner, Egyptian Mohamed Mansour …
Tory lawmaker faces ejection from Parliament for groping strangers at a London club …Ex SPAD Daniel Korski … Tory Candidate for London Mayor … groping allegation by TV writer Daisy Goodwin…. she has been contacted by other women with ‘some interesting stories’ … Mayoral selectors suggest that anybody associated with this government would lose to Labour … 6 Weeks is the time it took BBC to respond to allegations of presenter paying teenager for explicit photos … 5 years is the time it took Tory party to respond to allegations of MP Chris Pincher making unwanted sexual advances … Russell Tillotson, former Tory councillor … was, on 29 June convicted of four sex offences .. 1984 – 2001 while a teacher at Tonbridge school… The lurid affair of Hew Edwards has raised more questions about the state of British journalism … the young person’s lawyers, published in the Sun, were nonsense and the police ruled out criminal charges…
Tabloids one month after launch of US websites for Mirror, Express, Irish Daily News … not going to plan … US audiences not flocking to the news brands … New York office engulfed in a sexism storm reminiscent of 1990s lad mags … absolute shit show … Express online .. Resulted in a potentially expensive shitshow…
Mutiny in Metroland
Conservatives despatched Tory MPs from Parliament … Tories’ old heartlands not yet lost but they are becoming contested battlegrounds … in 2021 a Lib Dem was elected MP for Chesham and Amersham … earlier this year Lib Dems took control of councils in commuter towns around London … current polling suggests they could surge from 14 Parliamentary seats to 40 or 50 … a majority in Metroland voted against Brexit, which left a widespread impression that banking and the professions were a low priority for the Tories … rage has subsided but has left dismay … Johnson and his cronies mocked …the drinking, bullying, and sleaze of his administration seemed divorced from modern corporate culture … sewage spills … Lib Dems have used them to signal that politics is now fetid … voters feel overlooked and taken for granted by governments … a sentiment normally associated with poorer constituencies … Richy Scumbag is struggling to reverse Tory fortunes … estrangement may be too far gone to prevent a Tory rout … the earth is shifting …
Don Adamson Pip Pip Medway Delta (Retired) Saboteur and Brexorcist First Class
Editor’s note : Somewhat spookily, Vera Lynn died on the day I released this song and I got hate mail from the Brexiteers as if I had caused her demise …. oh well ‘Alo Vera charts the story of the Brexiteer with Brexit Buyer’s remorse but who cannot tell his mates down the pub …
Don Adamson is a true patriot – not befuddled by British Brexit mythology.
In this reflective piece by our guest writer Paul Higgins, he asks what next for Brexit Britain.
Seven years after the referendum and three after the UK effectively left the European Union many things still puzzle political analysts. While outside the UK it is crystal clear that Brexit has been a disaster, many in the UK still think the opposite. Cognitive dissonance characterised the more extremists in both the brexiter and remainer sides, even though remainers were always more rational and fact driven and that may have been one of the reasons behind their defeat in 2016. In any case, it is astonishingly surprising that, 7 years after the referendum, the UK is still unable to hold a civilised debate over Brexit.
Brexit was a major disruption in British politics. A rational, calm and mature democracy like the UK suddenly fell into the arms of the extreme right nationalist populism and has not recovered yet. Proof of this is that the so-called Brexit heroes enjoy a high level of impunity when it comes to breaking the law, lying to Parliament or losing a bank account. In the eyes of their followers, it’s nothing but the lefty, woke, EU and civil service elites trying to punish them for Brexit. They won’t even argue whether they broke the law or lied, that doesn’t matter and they will ignore it, it’s the attack on Brexit itself that explains everything.
Brexit is the ultimate reason why they feel they are better than the French, the Germans, the Dutch or the Swedish and they are not going to let anyone or anything question that. Even if the economy and public services are crumbling, it is a price well worth paying because superior beings need to be sovereign which, in their view, means different and not mixed with other Europeans. It is true that the cost of living crisis is biting the support for Brexit though. Polls estimate that the proportion of Britons that would vote remain now is about 63% whilst 37% would still vote for Brexit. But it is astonishing that, given the state of the country, remainers do not double that 20-point lead. There are many factors explaining this, the main ones are:
Brexit is still too emotional and facts are denied or reinterpreted by each side to accommodate their respective narrative. The war in Ukraine, COVID or the weather in Spain affect only Brexit Britain; whenever the EU makes a concession and allows the UK to trade in more favourable terms than any other third country, it is because we are better and they need us more than we need them; if not then it is because they want to punish us for Brexit. Whether it is to hate us or to love us, we will always be special. What they can’t even consider is that the rest of the world doesn’t think that Britain is special.
The press is prolonging this situation not only because most tabloids have embraced the national-populism cause, but also because, when not, they tend to go not for the truth or the facts but for the middle point in any debate remotely related to Brexit, even if that means softening an outright lie with a half lie.
The two main political parties don’t want to touch Brexit even with a nine feet cane. The Tories have invested a huge amount of political capital in Brexit and they can’t just make a u-turn and say ”sorry, we got it wrong” and Labour thinks that they can take the remainer vote for granted and take the fight to the Brexiter red wall.
The sense of entitlement that led to the leave victory in 2016 has somehow spread and most parties think that they can renegotiate the most inconvenient aspects of the deal with the EU and the EU and 27 countries will just accept any changes the Brits would honour them with a proposal.
Brexit, like communism or any religion, is an ideal and as such it can’t be questioned. Editor’s note : That’s why we wrote the book of Brexorcism, to deal with quasi religious based beliefs about Brexit. Whatever happens it would be because Brexit has not been implemented pure enough, because we didn’t believe hard enough, because this was not the Brexit people voted for or because of the works of the devil and you can replace devil with the blob, the establishment, lefty lawyers, civil servants or the EU.
In any case, as long as this sorry state of affairs in the collective British psyche doesn’t change, it is very difficult to have a serious and responsible debate among ourselves and with Europe. A debate about what kind of relationship we want with Europe and, moreover, to convince our neighbours that any change in that relationship is going to last longer than the few years between two consecutive general elections.
Editor’s note: Please note objective five of our goals.
