Some Remainers hold the view that Britain rules the waves and that we can rejoin the EU at some point in the future. The assumptions on which they base their predictions are that nothing changes in Britain or in the EU after Brexit. Yet this is fundamentally unlikely to be true and our chance to reverse Brexit is therefore time limited. Consider the effects of change over the next 5-10 years in socio-economic and cultural terms:
Scotland will have a legitimate case to leave the UK if Brexit happens. This will be followed by movements towards re-unification of Ireland, then the separation of Wales and so on. It is not too fanciful to suggest that England will gravitate towards The People’s Republic of Thurrock over the long term, as atomisation becomes fashionable. After all, Brexit is really about the creation of Singapore on Thames for a few people, the realignment of Britain with the worst of what the US has to offer and a narrow islander’s outlook on world affairs and racism.
In terms of economics, we have had a first wave of companies leaving the UK in 2017 – 2018 then another after it became clear that tariffs and a customs union will be a Brexit reality. The third wave will follow if Brexit happens, once companies understand that Brexit means No deal, No trade and No hope. The Russian experiment to destabilise Europe will be complete.
These economic and social changes will be accompanied by a consequential brain drain by people with portable skills in the 4th industrial age and a transition to a low skills / low wage culture. Brexit is Jacob Rees-Mogg’s wet dream of a return to an upstairs downstairs society of servants, serfdom and the workhouse. Quite why working class people voted for Brexit, apart from as a protest, still escapes me as someone who began life in a working class family but who now works globally as a knowledge worker. Brexit will make little impact on me personally, but I cannot understand why those who will lose most still seem to want it just because they “won”. Read what the University of Oxford has to say about our brain drain, which has increased by some 30% in recent times with Brexit being the dominant driver of “cerebral migration“.
“According to the study, the numbers of UK citizens obtaining EU member state passports provides evidence that an increasing number of UK immigrants are making long-term migration decisions to protect themselves from some of the negative effects of Brexit“
The net effects of these socio-economic and cultural changes will be deep and long lasting. They may result in the UK being unfit to re-join the EU as “Little Britain” may not even be able to meet the joining criteria. In any case, Britain may find itself in a queue behind Albania. Queuing is at least something that British people understand!
At the same time, the EU will not remain static across a 5-10 year period . Some of the likely effects on the EU side of things include:
The EU experience of our continuing desire to “have our cake and eat it too” may well persuade Brussels that Charles De Gaulle was right about Britain. De Gualle warned his five EEC partners that Britain had a “deep-seated hostility” to European integration that could bring about the end of what was then referred to as the “common market.” He also worried that in crunch times, Britain would always side with the United States over its continental neighbours. Britain has attempted to do just that by trading hormone fed beef and chlorinated chicken against our food supply from Europe and even our own farmer’s livelihoods. A nation that puts food before wellbeing needs to have a word with itself.
Over the last four years, as well as Britain’s decline as a nation, the EU has had time to mitigate the worst effects of Brexit for themselves. For example they have struck trade deals which will allow industries and countries to make up any losses from Britain’s involvement in the EU. This will lower their need to deal with us, especially if our trajectory is towards lower standards and US domination of our trade.
Given the atrocious way in which the UK has handled negotiations with Brussels, using table thumping techniques and inept negotiators such as David Frost, any such re-entry would likely be accompanied with a “terms and conditions” apply clause. For example Schengen, the Euro and so on. Europe will also learn from Brexit and not wish to have a repeat performance of the petulance and adapted child behaviour that has bedevilled Brexit.
Britain may even fail the criteria for being a democracy in 5-10 years, which is a pre-requisite of joining the EU. Important signifiers of our decline into a banana republic include:
- Stuffing the legislature with cronies
- Directing hundreds of millions to other cronies
- Removing checks and balances from Parliament
- Putting Civil Service departments under political control
The EU is no longer interested in wasting their time on Britain and this has consequences for any future relationship with Europe. Donald Trump will not rescue Britain, apart from asset stripping the NHS and killing our farmers.
The current migrant fiasco is a current example of our appalling behaviour towards others. Priti Patel attempts to suggest that people voted to kill migrant children by voting Brexit in 2016. She also argues that our inability to handle migration is France’s fault. This is a potent example “arrested development”. Three year olds in a playground arguing about who should have a piece of chocolate may actually demonstrate more advanced behaviours that our present political masters.
We cannot therefore rely on the idea of re-joining the EU. We must push for a suspension of Brexit in the wake of Corona, or just because Brexit is one of the most stupid and dangerous ideas of all time.
Things to do:
Write to your MP using this article to inform your letter.
Brexorcise your friends.
Support our continuing project to Re-Boot Britain.
Join our movement every Wednesday at 8 pm on ZOOM.