To complement our article Hard Facts about Brexit, this article explores some softer facts about Brexit around Rishi Sunak’s five promises now relabelled five priorities, soon to be called five phantasmagorical illusions. I’m defining hard facts as things having numerical values such as the recent revelation that only 18% of the British population think that Brexit was a good idea. Still some cling on to the promise of cheaper training shoes the year by 2066. Soft facts are no less important but they inhabit the less quantifiable world. Robert McNamara pointed out the value of things we cannot easily measure in his famous statement which came to be known as the McNamara Fallacy:
Immigration can be fixed
Rishi Sunak has amped up the Stop the Boats campaign in order to keep BIR (Brexit Inspired Racism) alive in Britain. Undeterred by a decisive judgement that the Rwanda scheme is immoral, indecent and illegal, Rishi has no place to go other than to waste more of your money taking the decision to a higher court.
Before Rishi’s Stop the Boats campaign, less than 10% of British people cared about immigration. Research from UK in a Changing Europe suggests that Ukraine changed attitudes to migration along with staff shortages due to the exodus of European migrant workers after Brexit. As with many things in public life, perception beats reality. People seem to believe that Brexit solved the problem of migrants, despite there being record numbers of migrants after Brexit. It’s almost as though Brexit popped a festering boil called migration and now people think we are pimple free. Accordingly, the Tories moved into the tight corner of hardcore racism, by demonising people in boats who are forced to live in hotels by the Government, because the Government refuses to allow them to work. The problem with immigration is three-fold:
1. We have not provided safe routes for asylum seekers.
2. The Home office is hopelessly unable to process those arriving.
3. Our government insists on incarcerating all people seeking asylum in hotels and on boats when the vast majority could become productive members of society who pay taxes. Naturally this antagonises people with feeble minds who don’t understand that this is a deliberate choice by Rishi Sunak.
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God’s waiting room
Even Tory party majorette Laura Kuenssberg questioned the veracity of Rishi Sunak’s claims that NHS waiting lists are falling. Patently they are NOT. It is a dirty LIE. Granted that Sunak said that people waiting two years for treatment are not waiting now. Some of them are dead …
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Halving inflation
Sunak may well be able to halve inflation. He needs to do this by early 2024 if there if to be a mini bounce prior to an election. Here is little Rishi’s strategy:
Sunak refuses to negotiate with nurses, doctors, train drivers, public servants yada yada even though public service pay rises do not contribute to inflation. But he manages the perception that he is being tough by doing this.
Little Rishi is instead loading the costs on first time buyers and people with mortgages who may have their houses repossessed. Of course, destitute people don’t contribute much to inflation. Dead people are even better, as they are a net tax input to the treasury.
Food inflation continues but people cannot afford to eat, so that problem is solved.
Fuel inflation is now largely baked into Rishi’s spreadsheet so he may get lucky here. But luck is not a strategy.
That said, inflation control is proving to be stubborn and reaching 5% may well prove impossible unless luck kicks in.
Reducing debt
Rishi’s promise aka priority in this area is once again typically vague. When 0.1% came off inflation 10% Rishi claimed a victory. For someone skilled in counting (his own) money. this is a fatal maths error !!! Thanks to Brexit we have record levels of national debt so any decrease would also be hailed as a great success. Truss wiped an uncool £70 000 000 000 off of the value of UK plc thanks to her Kamikaze budget in her experiment in hard Brexit economics. The Tory Fiscal cliff is now unprecedented and the root cause is 13 years of Tory mismanagement and hobby projects such as Brexit which have lowered our resilience to other global effects such as the pandemic and the Russian war on Ukraine.
The Golden Growth Goose
Rishi must, of course, be seen to have a go at growth, per his predecessor Liz Truss. This is why he recently suggested that Britain would be an area of low or no regulation re AI. He plans to fight America and Europe in the gold rush for jobs in AI … except that this is the war of the worlds scenario that leads to our extinction. See my articles and book on AI and humanity.
Apart from anything else, Britain does not have a workforce of highly skilled people, with many having left the country due to Brexit. His desperate attempt to hire gardeners and OAPs to do dentistry is at the root of his problems.
Brexit dentistry is an established academic discipline. Anyone with a Black and Decker drill and some pliers can do it. @RishiSunak @conhome #Brexit #Dentist #NHSCrisis #Nurses #Sunakered pic.twitter.com/huTyZ5wO2J
— Reboot Britain / Rage Against The Brexit Machine (@BrexitRage) July 1, 2023
Going for growth is also problematic at an ethical level. Producing more stuff in a world that needs and wants less stuff is morally bankrupt. We are seeing an end of days strategy from a weak Prime Minister, devoid of ideas, support and soft power in the world.
